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Brief Analysis: Items Released for 999 Gaia Cash
By: Revenant123
Date: 10/15/10
This is a list of items that were sold for 999 Gaia Cash, according to TekTek (http://www.tektek.org/gaia/item_search.php?search=cash_shop) and Gaiapedia on 10/15/10.
The price (in Gaia Gold) of released items starts high before immediately dropping. They reach a bottom level and then begin a long price climb. The category, Price, here, is either the approximate going price 1 year ago (for items released greater than 1 year ago), or the approximate price at the bottom of their drop. This category is included, as a reference, to show how much of a rise each item has undergone to reach their current ABP.
Not included in these charts are: Aquarium Fish Bundle #3 and #4, or EI Bundle #2. These are the only items of their kind which TekTek mentions at the 999 price point. Uncertainty concerning the release price of the other bundles in their series', combined with lack of information regarding their release and retiration dates, led to their exclusion.
EVOLVING ITEMS RELEASED FOR 999 GAIA CASH
[DATE RELEASED] [DATE RETIRED] [NAME] [CURRENT ABP] [PRICE]
12/06/07 05/30/08 Hermes' Moon 416,098 300,000
06/10/08 ??/??/?? Picolitrosso's Urn 735,431 400,000
09/16/08 04/03/09 Fallen Wish 840,362 350,000
11/21/08 06/26/09 Nano-C 863,958 300,000
02/20/09 09/11/09 Gogh Reed 942,473 700,000
08/28/09 07/02/10 Hidden Ace 612,597 300,000
02/05/10 ??/??/?? Compass of Seidh 950,054 500,000
ANIMATED ITEMS RELEASED FOR 999 GAIA CASH
[DATE RELEASED] [DATE RETIRED] [NAME] [CURRENT ABP] [PRICE]
05/27/10 06/07/10 Spectacular Golden Halo 231,645 400,000
07/16/10 07/23/10 Astra-IV: Shadow Gem 251,595 300,000
09/02/10 09/15/10 Astra-V: Twinkling Prism Charm 249,763 225,000
CHANCE ITEMS RELEASED FOR 999 GAIA CASH
[DATE RELEASED] [DATE RETIRED] [NAME] [CURRENT ABP] [PRICE]
02/24/09 03/20/09 FAMESTAR 2000 Ticket Bundle (9 pack) 2,086,450 750,000
03/24/09 04/14/09 Emerald Seed Bundle (9 pack) 1,256,240 500,000
04/21/09 05/05/09 Suspicious Package Bundle (9 pack) 1,402,110 500,000
05/22/09 06/17/09 Gee Boi Turbo Bundle (9 pack) 1,980,300 500,000
06/22/09 07/14/09 Midsummer Swirl Bundle (9 pack) 1,305,310 400,000
07/21/09 08/14/09 Lonely Star Bundle (9 pack) 1,496,400 400,000
08/25/09 09/14/09 Dark Reflection Bundle (9 pack) 1,949,750 450,000
09/22/09 10/14/09 LeXBox Bundle (9 Pack) 1,854,340 400,000
10/19/09 11/18/09 Azrael's Trickbox Bundle (9 pack) 2,562,810 200,000
11/23/09 12/14/09 Animal Quackers Bundle (9 Pack) 919,022 450,000
12/18/09 01/21/10 Snow Apple Bundle (9 pack) 300,023 500,000
01/25/10 02/17/10 Love Charm Bundle (9 pack) 1,538,600 500,000
02/18/10 03/19/10 Poseidon's Legacy Bundle (9 pack) 769,105 550,000
03/22/10 04/14/10 Code Alpha Bundle (9 pack) 873,158 575,000
04/20/10 05/14/10 Perfect Tragedy Bundle (9 pack) 1,801,130 600,000
05/19/10 06/17/10 Luna's Incense Bundle (9 pack) 805,283 775,000
06/22/10 07/16/10 Famestar Hero Bundle (9 pack) 1,547,830 900,000
07/20/10 08/18/10 Wrath of Gaia Bundle (9 Pack) 964,572 600,000
08/21/10 09/13/10 Final Reign Bundle (9 Pack) 763,279 675,000
09/17/10 10/08/10 Cirque du Gothique Bundle (9 Pack) 790,317 750,000
10/11/10 11/09/10 Hell Prison Bundle (9 Pack) 874,626 700,000
11/04/10 Present Neon Core Bundle (9 Pack) 713,008 0
CONTENT PACKS RELEASED FOR 999 GAIA CASH
[DATE RELEASED] [DATE RETIRED] [NAME] [CURRENT ABP] [PRICE]
11/03/09 12/14/09 Allegiance Bundle 430,386 200,000
12/03/09 ??/??/?? Cozy Holiday Bundle 469,078 250,000
01/13/10 Present zOMG! Double Trouble Bundle 189,991 100,000
03/04/10 08/13/10 Treasures of the Gairish Bundle 364,418 300,000
03/30/10 04/13/10 Cheep Bundle 627,729 425,000
04/28/10 05/12/10 Dramatic Troupe Bundle 640,602 425,000
05/12/10 05/26/10 Gourmet Bundle 526,045 425,000
06/03/10 06/17/10 Bears and Blossoms Bundle 481,969 500,000
06/17/10 07/01/10 Cosplay Bundle 673,393 675,000
06/29/10 ??/??/?? Bundle of the Eternal Struggle 504,821 400,000
07/26/10 ??/??/?? Gaia Ascended Bundle 859,944 400,000
08/04/10 08/20/10 Air Gaia Bundle 588,839 500,000
08/09/10 09/16/10 Balanced Bundle 475,494 400,000
08/18/10 09/16/10 Frontier Skies Bundle 410,045 300,000
08/27/10 09/03/10 Fox and Hound Bundle 713,986 450,000
09/22/10 10/06/10 Punk Academy Bundle 947,563 700,000
09/27/10 Present Paquete Magnifico 582,860 300,000
10/25/10 Present Requiem Bundle 755,260 500,000
ANALYSIS:
Animated items are horrible investments.
3/17 (17.6%) Content Bundles have an ABP greater than 700,000.
20/21 (95.2%) Chance Item Bundles have an ABP greater than 700,000.
5/7 (71.4%) Evolving Items have an ABP greater than 700,000. 71.4% of the evolving items are over a year old, too. They have, as a group, had the greatest amount of time to become scarce and increase in price.
There's no doubt. If you're spending real money, Chance Item Bundles are the route to take. You will almost certainly get at least $70k / $1
What if you are spending Gaia Gold and want to hoard something? Which is the best investment? Here, the most important aspect is:
([ABP] - [Price]) / [Price]
In short, the return on your investment. Particularly, the return over time. Not necessarily just the ABP.
Of the Content Bundles, you'd have doubled your money by now if you'd invested in the Gaia Ascended or the Allegiance Bundle (~1 in 8 chance of decent profit. Very poor odds).
Of the Evolving Items, you would have doubled your money with ~4/7 items. But two of those four were released years ago - a slow and risky investment.
Of the Chance Item Bundles, except for the Snow Apple Bundle (the content of that bundle must have been horrific), all of the 2009 items have performed excellently. The 2010 items have been meh. As next year passes, and the CI Bundles become rarer, will they attain/surpass the current price levels of the 2009 content? I would bet 'yes', and invest there.
[REVISION 10/17/10]
The Snow Apple Bundle (9 pack) (ABP of 300,000 at the time of original writing) currently has an ABP of 938,558 and it seems poised to increase even further in the near future. The original ABP was a temporary fluke, and this is likely much more representative of the long-term ABP for the item. All (21/21) CI Bundles have an ABP greater than 700,000. Moreover, I am revising my original estimate that a Gaian should be able to make at least $70k / $1, to at least $80k / $1.
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